|
Sign In to gain access to subscriptions and/or personal tools.
|
The ANNALS of the American Academy of Political and Social Science, Vol. 607, No. 1,
103-120 (2006)
DOI: 10.1177/0002716206290182
A Mathematical Model of the Risk of Nuclear Terrorism
Matthew Bunn
Project on Managing the Atom in the Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs at Harvard University's John F. Kennedy School of Government, White House Office of Science and Technology Policy
This article presents a mathematical model for measuring the global risk of nuclear theft and terrorism. One plausible set of parameter values used in a numerical example suggests a 29 percent probability of a nuclear terrorist attack in the next decade. The expected loss over that period would be $1.17 trillion (undiscounted), or more than $100 billion per year. Historical and other evidence is used to explore the likely values of several of the key parameters, and policy options for reducing the risk are briefly assessed. The uncertainties in estimating the risk of nuclear terrorism are very large, but even a risk dramatically smaller than that estimated in the numerical example used in this article would justify a broad range of actions to reduce the threat.
Key Words: nuclear terrorism • mathematical model • nuclear theft • black market • calculating risk
References
- Allison, Graham T. 2004. Nuclear terrorism: The ultimate preventable catastrophe. New York: Times Books/Henry Holt.
- Annan, Kofi. 2005. A global strategy for fighting terrorism: Keynote address to the Closing Plenary. Paper read at the International Summit on Democracy, Terrorism and Security, March 10, Madrid, Spain. http://english.safe-democracy.org/keynotes/a-global-strategy-for-fighting-terrorism.html.
- Anonymous. 2001. Russia: Terror groups scoped nuke site. Associated Press, October 25.
- Anonymous. 2003a. Plutonium con artists sentenced in Russian closed city of Sarov. NIS Export Control Observer, November. http://cns.miis.edu/pubs/nisexcon/pdfs/ob_0311e.pdf.
- Anonymous. 2003b. Russia: Criminals indicted for selling mercury as weapons-grade plutonium (Russian). Izvestiya, October 11.
- Anonymous. 2003c. Russian court sentences men for weapons-grade plutonium scam. RIA Novosti, October 14.
- Avedon, Roger E. 1997. On the future of civilian plutonium: An assessment of technological impediments to nuclear terrorism and proliferation. PhD diss., Engineering Economic Systems and Operations Research, Stanford University, Stanford, CA.
- Bleek, Philipp C. 2004. Global cleanout: An emerging approach to the civil nuclear material threat. Cambridge, MA: Project on Managing the Atom, Harvard University. http://bcsia.ksg.harvard.edu/BCSIA_content/documents/bleekglobalcleanout.pdf.
- Bukharin, Oleg, and William Potter. 1995. Potatoes were guarded better. Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists 51 (3): 46-50.
- Bunn, Matthew. 2002. The global threat. In Nuclear Threat initiative research library: Securing the bomb. Cambridge, MA/Washington, DC: Project on Managing the Atom, Harvard University/Nuclear Threat Initiative. http://www.nti.org/e_research/cnwm/threat/global.asp.
- Bunn, Matthew, and Anthony Wier. 2004. Securing the bomb: An agenda for action. Cambridge, MA/Washington, DC: Project on Managing the Atom, Harvard University/Nuclear Threat Initiative. http://www.nti.org/e_research/cnwm/overview/2004report.asp.
- Bunn, Matthew, and Anthony Wier. 2005. Securing the bomb 2005: The new global imperatives. Cambridge, MA/Washington, DC: Project on Managing the Atom, Harvard University/Nuclear Threat Initiative. http://www.nti.org/e_research/report_cnwmupdate2005.pdf.
- Bunn, Matthew, and Anthony Wier. 2006. Terrorist nuclear weapon construction: How difficult? Annals of the American Academy of Political and Social Science 607: 133-149.[Abstract/Free Full Text]
- Bunn, Matthew, Anthony Wier, and Joshua Friedman. 2005. The demand for black market fissile material. In Nuclear Threat Initiative Research Library: Securing the bomb. Cambridge, MA/Washington, DC: Project on Managing the Atom, Harvard University/Nuclear Threat Initiative. http://www.nti.org/e_research/cnwm/threat/demand.asp.
- Bunn, Matthew, Anthony Wier, and John Holdren. 2003. Controlling nuclear warheads and materials: A report card and action plan. Cambridge, MA/Washington, DC: Project on Managing the Atom, Harvard University/Nuclear Threat Initiative. http://www.nti.org/e_research/cnwm/overview/report.asp.
- Bush, President George W. 2001. President speaks on war effort to Citadel cadets: Remarks by the president at the Citadel. Washington, DC: The White House, Office of the Press Secretary. http://www.whitehouse.gov/news/releases/2001/12/20011211-6.html.
- Cockburn, Andrew, and Leslie Cockburn. 1997. One-point safe. New York: Anchor Books/Doubleday.
- Hegland, Corine, and Gregg Webb. 2005. The threat. National Journal 37 (16). http://nationaljournal.com/about/njweekly/stories/2005/0415nj1.htm.
- International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA). 2005. Illicit nuclear trafficking: Facts & figures. Vienna, Austria: IAEA. http://www.iaea.org/NewsCenter/Features/RadSources/Fact_Figures.html.
- Kellen, Konrad. 1987. Appendix: Nuclear-related terrorist activities by political terrorists. In Preventing nuclear terrorism: The report and papers of the International Task Force on Prevention of Nuclear Terrorism, ed. P. Leventhal and Y. Alexander. Cambridge, MA: Lexington Books for the Nuclear Control Institute.
- Koryashkin, Pavel. 2001. Russian nuclear ammunition depots well protected—official. ITAR-TASS, October 25.
- Kristof, Nicholas D. 2004. An American Hiroshima. New York Times, August 11.
- Kunreuther, Howard, and Geoffrey Heal. 2003. Interdependent security. Journal of Risk and Uncertainty 26 (2-3): 231-249. http://opim.wharton.upenn.edu/risk/downloads/02-06-HK.pdf.[CrossRef]
- Linkov, Igor, and Dmitriy Burmistrov. 2003. Model uncertainty and choices made by modelers: Lessons learned from the International Atomic Energy Agency model intercomparisons. Risk Analysis 23 (6): 1297-1308.[CrossRef][ISI][Medline]
[Order article via Infotrieve]
- Lugar, Richard G. 2005. The Lugar Survey on Proliferation Threats and Responses. Washington, DC: Office of Senator Lugar. http://lugar.senate.gov/reports/NPSurvey.pdf.
- U.S. Congress, Office of Technology Assessment (OTA). 1977. Nuclear proliferation and safeguards. Washington, DC: OTA. http://www.wws.princeton.edu/ota/disk3/1977/7705/7705.PDF.
- Waas, Murray. 2006. Intel reports cast doubt on Iraq war justifications. Global Security Newswire, March 9. http://www.nti.org/d_newswire/issues/2006/3/9/541C9625-EB23-4F5F-8A47-1663B968B897.html.
- Weinzierl, Matthew C. 2004. The cost of living: The economics of preventing nuclear terrorism. The National Interest 75 (spring): 118-122. http://www.findarticles.com/p/articles/mi_m2751/is_75/ai_n6076390/pg_1.
- Wier, Anthony. 2002. Interdicting nuclear smuggling. In Nuclear Threat Initiative research library: Securing the bomb. Cambridge, MA/Washington, DC: Project on Managing the Atom, Harvard University/Nuclear Threat Initiative. http://www.nti.org/e_research/cnwm/interdicting/index.asp.
- Woo, Gordon. 2002. Quantitative terrorism risk assessment. Journal of Risk Finance 4 (1): 15-24. http://www.rms.com/NewsPress/Quantitative_Terrorism_Risk_Assessment.pdf.
- Zebrowski, Edwin L. 1984. Analysis of risks of diversion of plutonium or highly enriched uranium. In Conversion of research and test reactors to low-enriched uranium (LEU) fuel. U.S. Congress, House of Representatives, Committee on Science, Space, and Technology.98th Cong., 2nd sess., September 25.
 CiteULike  Connotea  Del.icio.us  Digg  Reddit  Technorati What's this?
This article has been cited by other articles:
|
|
|
|
 
M. Bunn and A. Wier
Terrorist Nuclear Weapon Construction: How Difficult?
The ANNALS of the American Academy of Political and Social Science,
September 1, 2006;
607(1):
133 - 149.
[Abstract]
[PDF]
|
|
|
|
