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Terrorist Nuclear Weapon Construction: How Difficult?

Project on Managing the Atom in the Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs at Harvard University’s John F. Kennedy School of Government

Anthony Wier

Project on Managing the Atom in the Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs at Harvard University's John F. Kennedy School of Government

The likelihood of a nuclear terrorist attack depends in part on the ability of terrorist groups to acquire, construct, and detonate a nuclear device. This article attempts to determine the difficulty of such an endeavor by examining the underlying physical facts about nuclear fission, nuclear materials, and nuclear weapons design. The facts bear out a simple conclusion: while the danger should not be exaggerated, a nuclear terrorist attack is potentially within the capabilities of a well-organized and sophisticated terrorist group. A nuclear attack might be one of the most difficult missions a terrorist group could hope to try, but if a highly capable group acquired a stolen nuclear bomb or enough nuclear material to make one, there can be few grounds for confidence that they would be unable to use it.

Key Words: nuclear weapons • terrorism • fission • nuclear materials • weapons design

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				M. Bunn A Mathematical Model of the Risk of Nuclear Terrorism The ANNALS of the American Academy of Political and Social Science, September 1, 2006; 607(1): 103 - 120. [Abstract] [PDF]