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The ANNALS of the American Academy of Political and Social Science, Vol. 607, No. 1, 103-120 (2006)
DOI: 10.1177/0002716206290182
© 2006 American Academy of Political & Social Science

A Mathematical Model of the Risk of Nuclear Terrorism

Matthew Bunn

Project on Managing the Atom in the Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs at Harvard University's John F. Kennedy School of Government, White House Office of Science and Technology Policy

This article presents a mathematical model for measuring the global risk of nuclear theft and terrorism. One plausible set of parameter values used in a numerical example suggests a 29 percent probability of a nuclear terrorist attack in the next decade. The expected loss over that period would be $1.17 trillion (undiscounted), or more than $100 billion per year. Historical and other evidence is used to explore the likely values of several of the key parameters, and policy options for reducing the risk are briefly assessed. The uncertainties in estimating the risk of nuclear terrorism are very large, but even a risk dramatically smaller than that estimated in the numerical example used in this article would justify a broad range of actions to reduce the threat.

Key Words: nuclear terrorism • mathematical model • nuclear theft • black market • calculating risk


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M. Bunn and A. Wier
Terrorist Nuclear Weapon Construction: How Difficult?
The ANNALS of the American Academy of Political and Social Science, September 1, 2006; 607(1): 133 - 149.
[Abstract] [PDF]